Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 619 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–48%.

Safest bet that day B6 619 BOS 06:05 → SAN 09:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 749 BOS 16:30 → SAN 19:40 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 619 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:05	SAN 09:09	14%	3%	0.7%	89%
B6 219 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:50	SAN 11:55	19%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 256 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 08:28	SAN 11:43	25%	3%	0.7%	85%
B6 319 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:20	SAN 19:27	33%	6%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
AS 389 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 16:33	SAN 19:53	34%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 571 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:10	SAN 20:25	37%	9%	0.6%	70%
WN 749 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 16:30	SAN 19:40	48%	13%	0.9%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 25m New York	JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683	8h 50m	98%	86%
JetBlue Details →	BOS 05:01 → JFK 06:14B6 917	1h 31m New York	JFK 07:45 → SAN 10:34B6 189	8h 33m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712	9h 04m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON