tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Dulles, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → BOS 09:00 SAT 12:24 12% 4% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 02m Dulles IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789 6h 14m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:25 → MDW 07:00WN 3239 3h 35m Chicago MDW 10:35 → SAT 13:15WN 2570 8h 50m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 09:25 → SAT 11:50WN 1090 7h 05m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 6h 39m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 56m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 54m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611 1h 00m New York JFK 08:30 → SAT 11:42DL 1166 6h 37m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 10m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 53m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BOS 16:57 → DEN 19:45UA 800 54m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 7h 58m 72% 59%
UnitedDetails → BOS 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 2040 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 6h 57m 73% 55%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 18:45 → MDW 20:35WN 3911 50m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SAT 00:10 +1WN 3229 6h 25m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON