tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 09:26 SDF 12:09 8% 2% 0.6% 85%
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 13:35 SDF 16:16 9% 2% 0.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:05 → EWR 07:29UA 1833 2h 36m Newark EWR 10:05 → SDF 12:21UA 3421 · flown by Republic 6h 16m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727 3h 25m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297 6h 45m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 08m Dulles IAD 08:31 → SDF 10:23UA 3526 · flown by Republic 4h 38m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 6h 21m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 07:30 → MDW 09:10WN 745 3h 35m Chicago MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473 7h 25m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 56m Chicago ORD 08:00 → SDF 10:36AA 4704 · flown by Republic 5h 26m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → BOS 12:35 → IAD 14:43UA 3413 · flown by Republic 2h 42m Dulles IAD 17:25 → SDF 19:18UA 3538 · flown by Republic 6h 43m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:00 → LGA 07:23DL 5836 · flown by Republic 1h 16m New York LGA 08:39 → SDF 11:02DL 5643 · flown by Republic 5h 02m 95% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BOS 19:50 → BWI 21:35WN 735 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 22:40 → SDF 00:30 +1WN 156 4h 40m 73% 56%
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:00 → LGA 17:30DL 5726 · flown by Republic 50m New York LGA 18:20 → SDF 20:59DL 5636 · flown by Republic 4h 59m 69% 51%
UnitedDetails → BOS 17:44 → EWR 19:15UA 1647 1h 10m Newark EWR 20:25 → SDF 22:50UA 3512 · flown by Republic 5h 06m 61% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON