Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 384 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 384 BOS 07:53 → SEA 11:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 1337 BOS 19:44 → SEA 23:07 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 384 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:53	SEA 11:16	12%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 332 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:29	SEA 14:50	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 338 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 09:00	SEA 12:23	19%	3%	0.7%	80%
B6 397 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:10	SEA 10:33	19%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2889 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:40	SEA 19:11	19%	6%	0.6%	71%
AS 459 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 07:03	SEA 10:26	22%	3%	0.7%	75%
DL 324 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:29	SEA 23:02	25%	8%	0.7%	67%
AS 1506 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 15:26	SEA 18:45	27%	6%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
B6 197 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:29	SEA 22:54	35%	11%	0.7%	58%
AS 304 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 17:56	SEA 21:26	38%	8%	0.7%	66%
AS 1337 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 19:44	SEA 23:07	39%	9%	0.7%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 37m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51UA 2101	9h 06m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 04m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON