Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2441 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2441 BOS 06:00 → SFO 09:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 733 BOS 17:00 → SFO 20:34 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2441 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	SFO 09:27	13%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:20	SFO 10:51	15%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 323 United Flight history →	BOS 07:28	SFO 10:55	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1074 United Flight history →	BOS 11:35	SFO 15:02	19%	5%	0.6%	80%
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:35	SFO 10:05	20%	4%	0.7%	85%
UA 2002 United Flight history →	BOS 09:07	SFO 12:34	21%	5%	0.6%	56%
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:11	SFO 13:45	21%	5%	0.6%	51%
B6 1833 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:50	SFO 13:23	21%	6%	0.7%	83%
B6 833 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:20	SFO 11:54	23%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 512 United Flight history →	BOS 16:15	SFO 19:49	25%	7%	0.6%	69%
DL 2919 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:55	SFO 00:33	29%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 2400 United Flight history →	BOS 18:10	SFO 21:47	31%	8%	0.6%	57%
B6 233 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:50	SFO 19:22	32%	11%	0.7%	74%
UA 2107 United Flight history →	BOS 20:20	SFO 23:57	32%	7%	0.6%	58%
DL 1655 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:05	SFO 20:51	34%	10%	0.6%	69%
B6 413 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:55	SFO 00:30	38%	13%	0.7%	31%
B6 1633 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:05	SFO 22:46	39%	13%	0.7%	42%
B6 733 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:00	SFO 20:34	41%	13%	0.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


JetBlue Details →	BOS 05:01 → JFK 06:14B6 917	1h 46m New York	JFK 08:00 → SFO 11:20B6 15	9h 19m	100%	85%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 34m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 59m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON