tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 807 at 09:56, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 807 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 09:56 STT 13:59 28% 8% 0.8% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 52m Dulles IAD 08:15 → STT 12:20UA 1443 6h 35m 93% 85%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432 7h 43m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:47 → IAH 08:50UA 1409 1h 02m Houston IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908 9h 56m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902 8h 53m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889 8h 35m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38AA 1418 1h 29m Miami MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744 7h 49m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:00 → MIA 09:30AA 873 3h 38m Miami MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738 10h 00m 98% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON