Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4635 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4635 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:36	SYR 10:06	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
B6 845 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:35	SYR 22:51	30%	12%	0.8%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 07:00 → LGA 08:30DL 2770	1h 48m New York	LGA 10:18 → SYR 11:36DL 5841 · flown by Republic	4h 36m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	3h 53m Detroit	DTW 11:31 → SYR 13:01DL 3533 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	99%	86%
American Details →	BOS 09:37 → PHL 11:12AA 3225	2h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont	4h 57m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → SYR 11:25DL 1375	5h 55m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 40m New York	JFK 09:10 → SYR 10:41DL 5436 · flown by Endeavor	4h 36m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991	6h 48m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	3h 40m Detroit	DTW 15:04 → SYR 16:35DL 3565 · flown by SkyWest	7h 20m	98%	82%
American Details →	BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 13:23 → SYR 16:26AA 3819 · flown by Envoy	7h 28m	96%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:38 → ORD 19:59AA 1592	55m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → SYR 23:55AA 3817 · flown by Envoy	6h 17m	67%	57%
American Details →	BOS 19:37 → PHL 21:20AA 1147	1h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 22:20 → SYR 23:45AA 6103 · flown by Piedmont	4h 08m	68%	49%
American Details →	BOS 15:03 → PHL 16:39AA 2882	51m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → SYR 18:54AA 5837 · flown by Piedmont	3h 51m	68%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON