Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2706 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2706 BOS 07:00 → TPA 10:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 591 BOS 21:03 → TPA 00:22 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:00	TPA 10:18	7%	3%	16.6%	91%
B6 891 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:25	TPA 09:40	12%	3%	16.7%	91%
B6 791 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:15	TPA 11:28	20%	5%	16.7%	80%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:05	TPA 19:38	25%	10%	16.6%	73%
DL 2234 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:15	TPA 23:36	31%	11%	10.3%	65%
B6 391 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:19	TPA 19:38	41%	13%	16.7%	62%
B6 591 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:03	TPA 00:22	41%	15%	11.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON