Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4516 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:10	TVC 12:41	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 5821 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:06	TVC 16:39	14%	4%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	86%
United Details →	BOS 06:05 → EWR 07:29UA 1833	3h 07m Newark	EWR 10:36 → TVC 13:00UA 3588 · flown by Republic	6h 55m	99%	86%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 09:35 → TVC 11:57AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	100%	85%
American Details →	BOS 06:01 → PHL 07:44AA 1146	2h 46m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → TVC 12:47AA 5480 · flown by PSA	6h 46m	98%	84%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → DCA 09:00AA 4505 · flown by Republic	2h 20m Washington	DCA 11:20 → TVC 13:27AA 4138 · flown by Envoy	6h 27m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:00 → LGA 07:23DL 5836 · flown by Republic	1h 27m New York	LGA 08:50 → TVC 11:11DL 5621 · flown by Republic	5h 11m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	52m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	4h 15m	94%	81%
American Details →	BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → TVC 16:17AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	7h 19m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764	50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → TVC 12:47AA 5480 · flown by PSA	4h 44m	73%	62%
United Details →	BOS 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 1475	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → TVC 20:19UA 2790	5h 06m	75%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON