Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1162 at 00:15, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1162 United Flight history →	BQN 00:15	EWR 04:12	22%	5%	1.1%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Frontier Details →	BQN 03:10 → MCO 06:01F9 1953	1h 39m Orlando	MCO 07:40 → EWR 10:31F9 2512	7h 21m	89%	78%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 05:01 → FLL 07:33B6 2472	3h 57m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 11:30 → EWR 14:29B6 686	9h 28m	100%	67%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 14:38 → FLL 17:12B6 2072	3h 43m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:55 → EWR 23:58B6 706	9h 20m	96%	51%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 08:39 → MCO 11:33B6 729	3h 26m Orlando	MCO 14:59 → EWR 17:50B6 128	9h 11m	99%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON