Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1038 at 20:59, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1038 JetBlue Flight history →	BQN 20:59	JFK 00:51	30%	11%	1.6%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	BQN 05:01 → FLL 07:33B6 2472	1h 33m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 09:06 → JFK 12:04B6 2102	7h 03m	92%	74%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 08:39 → MCO 11:33B6 729	3h 24m Orlando	MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084	9h 05m	99%	50%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 14:38 → FLL 17:12B6 2072	1h 23m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 18:35 → JFK 21:39B6 1802	7h 01m	79%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON