Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2664 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2664 BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1407 BUF 14:48 → ATL 17:08 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2664 Delta Flight history →	BUF 06:00	ATL 08:05	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2054 Delta Flight history →	BUF 19:24	ATL 21:44	14%	5%	1.2%	79%
DL 1384 Delta Flight history →	BUF 12:16	ATL 14:22	14%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2266 Delta Flight history →	BUF 17:12	ATL 19:23	18%	5%	0.9%	80%
F9 1407 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 14:48	ATL 17:08	32%	15%	1.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON