tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 668 at 12:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 668 Southwest Flight history → BUF 12:15 BNA 13:10 14% 4% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:05 → BWI 07:20WN 756 2h 25m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 5h 30m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155 5h 10m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 49m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:51AA 3221 6h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 56m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 14m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 29m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 07:35 → MDW 08:15WN 4154 3h 05m Chicago MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 6h 10m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:00 → LGA 07:23AA 4522 · flown by Republic 1h 04m New York LGA 08:27 → BNA 10:05AA 4364 · flown by Republic 5h 05m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 08:55 → DTW 10:10DL 3639 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 5h 08m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 54m Chicago ORD 19:57 → BNA 21:45UA 2063 4h 41m 67% 53%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 54m Chicago ORD 15:49 → BNA 17:40UA 5665 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 66% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON