Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4788 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4788 BUF 07:15 → BOS 08:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 516 BUF 21:36 → BOS 23:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4788 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 07:15	BOS 08:51	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
B6 716 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 06:00	BOS 07:25	6%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:41	BOS 13:16	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
B6 2116 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 10:25	BOS 11:47	13%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 4068 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUF 16:13	BOS 17:51	22%	8%	0.8%	67%
B6 516 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 21:36	BOS 23:02	31%	13%	1.4%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON