Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 756 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 756 BUF 06:05 → BWI 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 958 BUF 17:55 → BWI 19:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 756 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 06:05	BWI 07:20	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 757 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 08:45	BWI 09:55	6%	1%	0.6%	86%
WN 758 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 11:00	BWI 12:15	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 4734 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 14:50	BWI 16:05	16%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 958 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 17:55	BWI 19:15	19%	5%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON