Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1204 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1204 BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1614 BUF 19:35 → CLT 21:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1204 American Flight history →	BUF 06:01	CLT 08:01	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	BUF 13:47	CLT 15:49	17%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 1614 American Flight history →	BUF 19:35	CLT 21:36	25%	8%	1.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON