Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3668 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3668 BUF 06:00 → DCA 07:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5106 BUF 17:25 → DCA 18:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3668 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUF 06:00	DCA 07:29	9%	4%	1.0%	96%
AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BUF 12:45	DCA 14:18	24%	11%	1.4%	58%
AA 5106 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BUF 17:25	DCA 18:59	29%	12%	1.9%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON