tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1727 United Flight history → BUF 09:00 DEN 10:35 8% 3% 0.6% 86%
WN 3413 Southwest Flight history → BUF 16:40 DEN 18:15 30% 5% 0.6% 19%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 07:35 → MDW 08:15WN 4154 1h 40m Chicago MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654 5h 55m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 2h 39m Dulles IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 7h 50m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:05 → BWI 07:20WN 756 2h 20m Baltimore BWI 09:40 → DEN 11:25WN 275 7h 20m 100% 87%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 2h 25m New York JFK 10:30 → DEN 13:11B6 1497 8h 31m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Chicago ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581 7h 45m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 49m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → DEN 11:56AA 3312 8h 36m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:00 → EWR 07:25UA 3420 · flown by Republic 2h 35m Newark EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 8h 18m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 57m Chicago ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767 5h 57m 72% 61%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 19:55 → MDW 20:35WN 768 50m Chicago MDW 21:25 → DEN 23:10WN 2770 5h 15m 66% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON