tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 882 American Flight history → BUF 07:01 DFW 09:25 8% 4% 0.9% 87%
AA 1615 American Flight history → BUF 16:46 DFW 19:10 20% 8% 1.1% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:00 → EWR 07:25UA 3420 · flown by Republic 1h 41m Newark EWR 09:06 → DFW 11:54UA 454 6h 54m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:00 → DCA 07:29AA 3668 · flown by Envoy 2h 31m Washington DCA 10:00 → DFW 12:21AA 1618 7h 21m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 56m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 5h 38m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 34m Philadelphia PHL 08:20 → DFW 11:03AA 1692 6h 43m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 7h 12m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:15 → BOS 08:51AA 4788 · flown by Republic 3h 47m Boston BOS 12:38 → DFW 15:59AA 1583 9h 44m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:00 → LGA 07:23AA 4522 · flown by Republic 3h 52m New York LGA 11:15 → DFW 14:11AA 1166 9h 11m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 12:45 → DCA 14:18AA 5104 · flown by PSA 55m Washington DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 5h 59m 70% 59%
AmericanDetails → BUF 13:47 → CLT 15:49AA 1616 49m Charlotte CLT 16:38 → DFW 18:36AA 2815 5h 49m 73% 55%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 47m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 5h 32m 54% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON