Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2898 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2898 BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3637 BUF 19:50 → DTW 21:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2898 Delta Flight history →	BUF 06:29	DTW 07:42	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 3639 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 08:55	DTW 10:10	11%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 3636 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 12:03	DTW 13:19	14%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 3642 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 15:54	DTW 17:10	18%	8%	0.7%	73%
DL 3637 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 19:50	DTW 21:11	20%	7%	1.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON