tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3420 United flown by Republic Flight history → BUF 06:00 EWR 07:25 6% 3% 1.2% 90%
UA 3715 United flown by Republic Flight history → BUF 10:34 EWR 11:59 9% 3% 1.3% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 27m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 17m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:37AA 1819 6h 36m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 55m Dulles IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 3h 40m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 08:55 → DTW 10:10DL 3639 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Detroit DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573 6h 59m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:32 → ORD 07:35AA 1195 2h 35m Chicago ORD 10:10 → EWR 13:30AA 2250 6h 58m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUF 10:57 → ORD 11:57UA 705 1h 33m Chicago ORD 13:30 → EWR 16:55UA 2759 5h 58m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Chicago ORD 15:57 → EWR 19:33UA 2171 5h 39m 74% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON