tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 2465 at 20:40, with a 42% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 2465 JetBlue Flight history → BUF 20:40 FLL 23:39 42% 16% 3.8% 80%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:05 → BWI 07:20WN 756 2h 30m Baltimore BWI 09:50 → FLL 12:20WN 4785 6h 15m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 46m Dulles IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07UA 1825 4h 52m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 3h 59m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → FLL 13:38AA 695 8h 18m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 8h 13m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → BUF 08:55 → DTW 10:10DL 3639 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 6h 39m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 2h 44m New York JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305 7h 24m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:00 → EWR 07:25UA 3420 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Newark EWR 08:35 → FLL 11:40UA 2444 5h 40m 94% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON