tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 491 JetBlue Flight history → BUF 20:20 LAX 22:38 35% 13% 1.8% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 40m Philadelphia PHL 08:26 → LAX 11:14AA 824 8h 54m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 10h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 1h 36m Dulles IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39UA 1868 8h 24m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUF 08:55 → DTW 10:10DL 3639 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 8h 40m 98% 85%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 2h 55m New York JFK 11:00 → LAX 14:05B6 1123 10h 25m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 10:34 → IAD 11:50UA 3430 · flown by Republic 3h 25m Dulles IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47UA 684 10h 13m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 55m Charlotte CLT 11:56 → LAX 13:55AA 1213 10h 54m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:00 → JFK 11:24DL 5426 · flown by Endeavor 2h 26m New York JFK 13:50 → LAX 16:47DL 747 9h 47m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 26m 64% 50%
AmericanDetails → BUF 19:40 → PHL 21:10AA 6114 · flown by Piedmont 55m Philadelphia PHL 22:05 → LAX 00:50 +1AA 738 8h 10m 68% 46%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 19:21 → JFK 20:50B6 201 50m New York JFK 21:40 → LAX 00:51 +1B6 923 8h 30m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON