Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4522 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4522 BUF 06:00 → LGA 07:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4378 BUF 18:00 → LGA 19:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 06:00	LGA 07:23	6%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 4379 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:10	LGA 12:36	11%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 4378 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 18:00	LGA 19:29	25%	9%	2.3%	60%
DL 5376 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 10:20	LGA 11:44	11%	7%	4.2%	89%
DL 4670 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 06:05	LGA 07:30	13%	5%	3.8%	87%
DL 5362 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 14:30	LGA 15:58	30%	17%	8.9%	70%
DL 5380 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 18:10	LGA 19:39	41%	20%	15.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON