Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 85 at 08:42 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–36%.

Safest bet that day B6 85 BUF 08:42 → MCO 11:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1691 BUF 19:57 → MCO 22:49 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 85 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 08:42	MCO 11:22	13%	5%	15.2%	85%
B6 1085 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 09:59	MCO 12:38	15%	6%	15.8%	68%
WN 762 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 12:40	MCO 15:15	23%	7%	15.8%	81%
F9 1691 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 19:57	MCO 22:49	36%	19%	8.5%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON