tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1751 at 19:36, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1751 Delta Flight history → BUF 19:36 MSP 20:52 20% 8% 1.2% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 07:35 → MDW 08:15WN 4154 2h 00m Chicago MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869 5h 10m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 6h 31m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 1h 18m Detroit DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 4h 25m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 1h 11m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36UA 3649 · flown by Republic 5h 21m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:00 → DCA 07:29AA 3668 · flown by Envoy 3h 01m Washington DCA 10:30 → MSP 12:20AA 3796 · flown by Envoy 7h 20m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 3h 54m Philadelphia PHL 10:40 → MSP 12:38AA 5658 · flown by PSA 8h 18m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 3h 05m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 50m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Chicago ORD 10:25 → MSP 12:17UA 5684 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 54m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 4h 37m 67% 53%
AmericanDetails → BUF 17:25 → DCA 18:59AA 5106 · flown by PSA 1h 07m Washington DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA 5h 29m 73% 49%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 16:40 → DEN 18:15WN 3413 50m Denver DEN 19:05 → MSP 22:10WN 2677 6h 30m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON