Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4413 at 10:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4413 BUF 10:07 → ORD 11:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4913 BUF 16:45 → ORD 18:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 10:07	ORD 11:09	8%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 1195 American Flight history →	BUF 06:32	ORD 07:35	8%	5%	1.2%	88%
UA 705 United Flight history →	BUF 10:57	ORD 11:57	9%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 5820 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 07:00	ORD 08:05	10%	6%	1.3%	89%
AA 2112 American Flight history →	BUF 08:08	ORD 09:10	14%	4%	1.1%	84%
UA 2747 United Flight history →	BUF 18:04	ORD 19:03	24%	8%	0.9%	63%
AA 4913 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 16:45	ORD 18:00	26%	10%	2.3%	58%
UA 4381 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 13:54	ORD 14:55	27%	16%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON