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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102 7h 44m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:05 → BWI 07:20WN 756 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → RSW 11:00WN 1082 4h 55m 96% 67%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 7h 11m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 08:28 → RSW 11:22AA 2445 6h 02m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → BUF 10:34 → EWR 11:59UA 3715 · flown by Republic 2h 22m Newark EWR 14:21 → RSW 17:28UA 2044 6h 54m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:00 → DCA 07:29AA 3668 · flown by Envoy 3h 17m Washington DCA 10:46 → RSW 13:24AA 2448 7h 24m 100% 64%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124 6h 39m 99% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON