tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 769 at 06:25, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 769 Southwest Flight history → BUF 06:25 TPA 09:10 6% 2% 17.1% 100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 07:35 → MDW 08:15WN 4154 1h 00m Chicago MDW 09:15 → TPA 12:50WN 2907 5h 15m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 12m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:00 → EWR 07:25UA 3420 · flown by Republic 1h 40m Newark EWR 09:05 → TPA 11:59UA 1576 5h 59m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 1h 26m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 17m 95% 71%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:05 → BWI 07:20WN 756 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120 4h 55m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 6h 39m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:00 → DCA 07:29AA 3668 · flown by Envoy 2h 46m Washington DCA 10:15 → TPA 12:40AA 2852 6h 40m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 21m 98% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON