tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 483 Delta Flight history → BUR 13:55 ATL 21:42 26% 6% 1.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912 9h 20m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 9h 22m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905 8h 23m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 1h 20m Chicago MDW 14:40 → ATL 17:35WN 4592 7h 10m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875 8h 40m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 3h 39m San Francisco SFO 21:20 → ATL 05:20 +1UA 1603 10h 07m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 13:45 → BNA 19:45WN 3140 3h 05m Nashville BNA 22:50 → ATL 01:05 +1WN 447 8h 20m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720 3h 13m Seattle SEA 16:05 → ATL 23:59AS 727 10h 49m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 10m San Francisco SFO 21:20 → ATL 05:20 +1UA 1603 7h 38m 71% 56%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 14:45 → DEN 18:10WN 138 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → ATL 00:10 +1WN 1472 6h 25m 64% 41%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 19:58 → SEA 22:39AS 347 52m Seattle SEA 23:31 → ATL 07:24 +1AS 464 8h 26m 52% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON