tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Albuquerque, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 771 Southwest Flight history → BUR 11:00 AUS 16:00 18% 6% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 5h 59m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 00m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 40m 99% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 2h 10m Denver DEN 12:40 → AUS 15:50WN 1476 6h 40m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 2h 09m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → AUS 05:46 +1UA 1807 7h 24m 90% 75%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540 7h 29m 94% 75%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:35 → PHX 10:10WN 814 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 11:35 → AUS 15:50WN 3234 5h 15m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:35 → DEN 11:50WN 351 2h 40m Denver DEN 14:30 → AUS 17:40WN 1478 7h 05m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 14:08 → AUS 17:57DL 2581 6h 12m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BUR 12:50 → LAS 14:05WN 3124 55m Las Vegas LAS 15:00 → AUS 19:50WN 2183 5h 00m 59% 39%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 17:20 → LAS 18:30WN 792 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 3569 4h 50m 51% 30%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:05 → LAS 12:15WN 3090 50m Las Vegas LAS 13:05 → AUS 17:55WN 1285 4h 50m 40% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON