tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 08:35, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3140 Southwest Flight history → BUR 13:45 BNA 19:45 30% 8% 0.7% 35%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 9h 13m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:35 → SMF 19:55WN 853 3h 10m Sacramento SMF 23:05 → BNA 05:10 +1WN 3759 8h 35m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 8h 30m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → BNA 06:37 +1UA 1815 9h 55m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 1h 15m Denver DEN 13:50 → BNA 17:34UA 1109 6h 26m 92% 75%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 3h 45m Chicago MDW 17:05 → BNA 18:35WN 2199 9h 10m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → BNA 17:00AS 1376 7h 51m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → BNA 22:46UA 373 9h 53m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 47m San Francisco SFO 09:17 → BNA 15:53UA 499 6h 51m 60% 51%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 57m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → BNA 22:46UA 373 7h 01m 57% 43%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 12:50 → LAS 14:05WN 3124 55m Las Vegas LAS 15:00 → BNA 20:45WN 4395 5h 55m 59% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON