tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3209 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3209 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → BUR 11:00 BOI 14:09 10% 6% 0.7% 98%
WN 776 Southwest Flight history → BUR 15:55 BOI 18:45 25% 6% 0.8% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon 4h 40m 94% 89%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720 2h 53m Seattle SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon 7h 01m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → BUR 09:16 → PHX 10:52AA 3992 · flown by Envoy 2h 43m Phoenix PHX 13:35 → BOI 16:50AA 4934 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 100% 85%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 13:21 → SEA 16:03AS 580 3h 56m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon 8h 03m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → BOI 12:14DL 1442 4h 14m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920 7h 06m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111 6h 11m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 20m Denver DEN 15:55 → BOI 17:56UA 2602 7h 48m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 18:45 → BOI 21:40UA 5644 · flown by SkyWest 4h 27m 74% 59%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 49m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → BOI 23:55UA 6027 · flown by SkyWest 4h 13m 66% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON