tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:54, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079 10h 06m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 1h 10m Chicago MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020 7h 00m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:09 +1UA 1340 9h 27m 91% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 17:55 → SJC 19:05WN 840 2h 35m San Jose SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 621 8h 50m 94% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:35 → SMF 19:55WN 853 1h 45m Sacramento SMF 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3622 8h 00m 90% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 1h 15m Denver DEN 11:45 → BWI 17:15WN 4434 7h 05m 97% 72%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:00 → PHX 08:40WN 813 50m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039 6h 55m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 7h 55m 80% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 50m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:09 +1UA 1340 7h 47m 58% 50%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 18:39 → SEA 21:20AS 703 1h 02m Seattle SEA 22:22 → BWI 06:27 +1AS 781 8h 48m 60% 47%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 14:45 → DEN 18:10WN 138 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → BWI 00:35 +1WN 1500 6h 50m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON