Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2921 at 11:45, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2921 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 11:45	DAL 16:50	18%	3%	0.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 07:00 → PHX 08:40WN 813	2h 15m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	6h 20m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	BUR 08:20 → LAS 09:30WN 786	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218	5h 20m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778	1h 10m Denver	DEN 11:40 → DAL 14:45WN 2354	5h 35m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:20 → SJC 08:35WN 834	3h 05m San Jose	SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965	7h 45m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:05 → OAK 08:25WN 4919	2h 35m Oakland	OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014	7h 20m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	BUR 08:35 → PHX 10:10WN 814	3h 15m Phoenix	PHX 13:25 → DAL 17:50WN 3256	7h 15m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 16:20 → DAL 18:35WN 2758	9h 10m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	BUR 10:20 → ABQ 13:10WN 419	3h 10m Albuquerque	ABQ 16:20 → DAL 19:10WN 107	6h 50m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUR 14:45 → DEN 18:10WN 138	55m Denver	DEN 19:05 → DAL 22:05WN 1522	5h 20m	64%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON