Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 778 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 778 BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4213 BUR 13:20 → DEN 16:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 778 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:10	DEN 10:30	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 351 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:35	DEN 11:50	12%	3%	0.7%	96%
UA 1191 United Flight history →	BUR 09:08	DEN 12:35	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2187 United Flight history →	BUR 12:48	DEN 16:16	20%	7%	0.6%	80%
WN 138 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 14:45	DEN 18:10	26%	8%	0.7%	79%
WN 4213 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 13:20	DEN 16:45	26%	7%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON