Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2599 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2599 American Flight history →	BUR 07:01	DFW 12:19	12%	4%	1.4%	92%
AA 1617 American Flight history →	BUR 12:57	DFW 18:22	26%	8%	1.4%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392	7h 33m	98%	82%
United Details →	BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191	3h 07m Denver	DEN 15:42 → DFW 18:48UA 414	7h 40m	99%	80%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	3h 37m San Francisco	SFO 18:50 → DFW 00:37 +1UA 2478	8h 52m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DFW 17:33DL 2811	8h 33m	99%	78%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	2h 37m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 11m	95%	75%
American Details →	BUR 09:16 → PHX 10:52AA 3992 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Phoenix	PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079	6h 56m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	6h 48m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:03 → SEA 09:44AS 444	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549	9h 18m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON