tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3107 at 16:22, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3107 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → BUR 16:22 EUG 18:43 20% 7% 0.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest 7h 01m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 32m Portland PDX 10:59 → EUG 11:57AS 3063 · flown by SkyWest 4h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest 2h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 98% 87%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:03 → SEA 09:44AS 444 1h 53m Seattle SEA 11:37 → EUG 13:01AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest 5h 58m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EUG 22:59UA 1508 6h 46m 98% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:20 → LAS 09:30WN 786 2h 30m Las Vegas LAS 12:00 → EUG 14:05WN 2234 5h 45m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → BUR 16:44 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Phoenix PHX 20:40 → EUG 23:17AA 4028 · flown by Envoy 6h 33m 89% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 09:55 → SJC 11:05WN 835 3h 40m San Jose SJC 14:45 → EUG 16:15WN 2909 6h 20m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EUG 22:59UA 1508 4h 17m 70% 54%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 57m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → EUG 17:56UA 5604 · flown by SkyWest 4h 11m 57% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON