tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 16:13, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 10h 46m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 2h 05m Chicago MDW 15:25 → FLL 19:25WN 4899 9h 00m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:25 → FLL 18:19AA 1868 8h 18m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 29m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:51UA 1374 8h 03m 89% 67%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:00 → AUS 16:00WN 771 3h 25m Austin AUS 19:25 → FLL 23:15WN 300 9h 15m 100% 63%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:35 → DEN 11:50WN 351 3h 05m Denver DEN 14:55 → FLL 20:50WN 4222 9h 15m 100% 61%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921 2h 30m Dallas DAL 19:20 → FLL 23:10WN 46 8h 25m 96% 56%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 44m 76% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 8h 17m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON