tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1644 Alaska BUR 07:00 HNL 10:00 25% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 10h 58m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 10h 19m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 25m Denver DEN 16:00 → HNL 19:13UA 1805 13h 05m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:05 → OAK 08:25WN 4919 3h 00m Oakland OAK 11:25 → HNL 13:45WN 2879 9h 40m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:15 → LAS 08:30WN 785 1h 50m Las Vegas LAS 10:20 → HNL 13:40WN 2240 9h 25m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:00 → PHX 08:40WN 813 50m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → HNL 12:55WN 3274 8h 55m 93% 71%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → HNL 14:35UA 1260 10h 33m 98% 65%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 15:15 → SJC 16:30WN 4883 2h 20m San Jose SJC 18:50 → HNL 21:20WN 3672 9h 05m 94% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 1h 34m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 8h 25m 69% 49%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 50m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 7h 41m 52% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON