tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:30 → SMF 08:55WN 845 2h 05m Sacramento SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782 7h 15m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 1h 40m Chicago MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124 8h 10m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 2h 00m Denver DEN 12:30 → HOU 16:05WN 1544 6h 55m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 10:20 → ABQ 13:10WN 419 3h 25m Albuquerque ABQ 16:35 → HOU 19:50WN 127 7h 30m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:00 → PHX 08:40WN 813 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067 6h 05m 98% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 13:45 → BNA 19:45WN 3140 3h 00m Nashville BNA 22:45 → HOU 00:50 +1WN 4474 9h 05m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:20 → LAS 09:30WN 786 1h 55m Las Vegas LAS 11:25 → HOU 16:35WN 4724 6h 15m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON