tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 618 Allegiant BUR 10:58 IND 18:07 32% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 59m San Francisco SFO 11:29 → IND 18:57UA 1902 8h 55m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228 7h 24m 98% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 1h 10m Denver DEN 11:40 → IND 16:10WN 1553 6h 00m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 55m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IND 06:38 +1UA 2477 8h 56m 94% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:35 → DEN 11:50WN 351 2h 05m Denver DEN 13:55 → IND 18:25WN 1554 6h 50m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 37m Denver DEN 17:53 → IND 22:30UA 1199 6h 42m 90% 70%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 7h 46m 84% 70%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 13:20 → DEN 16:45WN 4213 2h 30m Denver DEN 19:15 → IND 23:50WN 1211 7h 30m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IND 06:38 +1UA 2477 7h 16m 72% 56%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 13:45 → BNA 19:45WN 3140 50m Nashville BNA 20:35 → IND 22:55WN 539 6h 10m 65% 50%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:09 → IND 22:23AA 2800 6h 26m 65% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON