Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 359 JetBlue Flight history →	BUR 21:25	JFK 05:59	32%	9%	2.0%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 20m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 14m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 40m	97%	75%
American Details →	BUR 16:44 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 03m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	8h 12m	96%	73%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578	10h 59m	99%	69%
American Details →	BUR 09:16 → PHX 10:52AA 3992 · flown by Envoy	2h 01m Phoenix	PHX 12:53 → JFK 21:00AA 1224	8h 44m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:39 → SEA 21:20AS 703	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	9h 59m	87%	60%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 14:02 → JFK 22:29AS 16	9h 19m	85%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON