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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 785 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 785 BUR 07:15 → LAS 08:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4370 BUR 18:10 → LAS 19:20 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 785 Southwest Flight history → BUR 07:15 LAS 08:30 7% 2% 1.3% 100%
WN 786 Southwest Flight history → BUR 08:20 LAS 09:30 10% 3% 1.3% 100%
WN 4724 Southwest Flight history → BUR 09:40 LAS 10:50 12% 3% 1.3% 98%worse than usual
WN 3090 Southwest Flight history → BUR 11:05 LAS 12:15 18% 5% 1.3% 94%worse than usual
F9 4108 Frontier Flight history → BUR 09:00 LAS 10:21 21% 8% 2.3% 80%
WN 3124 Southwest Flight history → BUR 12:50 LAS 14:05 27% 7% 1.3% 88%worse than usual
WN 790 Southwest Flight history → BUR 14:00 LAS 15:10 30% 8% 1.3% 75%
WN 791 Southwest Flight history → BUR 15:40 LAS 16:50 33% 10% 1.3% 81%worse than usual
WN 794 Southwest Flight history → BUR 19:00 LAS 20:10 36% 13% 1.1% 76%worse than usual
WN 799 Southwest Flight history → BUR 20:55 LAS 22:05 36% 13% 1.2% 59%
WN 792 Southwest Flight history → BUR 17:20 LAS 18:30 39% 13% 1.2% 61%
F9 1196 Frontier Flight history → BUR 18:00 LAS 19:21 42% 15% 2.2% 68%
WN 4370 Southwest Flight history → BUR 18:10 LAS 19:20 44% 14% 1.2% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON