tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 09:08, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 25m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 9h 46m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:54 → LGA 18:28AA 1535 8h 27m 96% 63%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 1h 30m Chicago MDW 14:50 → LGA 17:55WN 2804 7h 30m 100% 61%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:35 → DEN 11:50WN 351 3h 15m Denver DEN 15:05 → LGA 20:50WN 4233 9h 15m 100% 51%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921 1h 10m Dallas DAL 18:00 → LGA 22:25WN 4852 7h 40m 85% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 7h 48m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON