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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 18:42, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → MCO 08:34 +1UA 1267 10h 52m 99% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:35 → SMF 19:55WN 853 2h 15m Sacramento SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15 +1WN 3799 8h 40m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 10h 06m 99% 72%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:55 → PHX 20:25WN 820 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 8h 25m 97% 70%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 14:52 → SEA 17:34AS 537 3h 59m Seattle SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394 12h 24m 99% 68%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:10 → LAS 19:20WN 4370 3h 30m Las Vegas LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590 9h 15m 100% 65%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 3h 50m Chicago MDW 17:10 → MCO 20:55WN 164 10h 30m 100% 63%
AmericanDetails → BUR 16:44 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Phoenix PHX 21:51 → MCO 05:00 +1AA 563 9h 16m 96% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BUR 20:30 → PHX 22:00WN 839 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 6h 50m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON