Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:54, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 46m	99%	82%
American Details →	BUR 18:38 → PHX 20:19AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654	8h 50m	98%	77%
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	2h 44m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	9h 57m	93%	73%
American Details →	BUR 16:44 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest	3h 37m Phoenix	PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205	9h 38m	96%	73%
American Details →	BUR 09:16 → PHX 10:52AA 3992 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 12:52 → MIA 20:28AA 1983	8h 12m	97%	66%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778	1h 40m Denver	DEN 12:10 → MIA 18:10WN 1624	8h 00m	99%	63%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 37m Denver	DEN 17:53 → MIA 23:59UA 1741	8h 11m	90%	62%
Frontier Details →	BUR 18:00 → LAS 19:21F9 1196	3h 08m Las Vegas	LAS 22:29 → MIA 06:30 +1F9 4552	9h 30m	91%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	8h 17m	69%	53%
American Details →	BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:12 → MIA 22:59AA 1824	7h 02m	66%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON