Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4919 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4919 BUR 07:05 → OAK 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 808 BUR 20:10 → OAK 21:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4919 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:05	OAK 08:25	4%	1%	1.5%	98%
WN 802 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 09:00	OAK 10:15	8%	2%	1.5%	96%
WN 803 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 11:35	OAK 12:50	12%	3%	1.4%	94%
WN 804 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 13:05	OAK 14:20	21%	4%	1.4%	73%
WN 805 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:05	OAK 16:20	26%	5%	1.4%	68%
WN 806 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 17:00	OAK 18:15	27%	6%	1.2%	68%
WN 807 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:35	OAK 19:50	30%	7%	1.1%	72%
WN 808 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 20:10	OAK 21:25	30%	7%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON