Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 813 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 813 BUR 07:00 → PHX 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 839 BUR 20:30 → PHX 22:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 813 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:00	PHX 08:40	4%	2%	1.1%	95%
WN 814 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:35	PHX 10:10	9%	3%	1.1%	96%
WN 816 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 11:55	PHX 13:30	14%	5%	0.9%	94%
AA 3992 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUR 09:16	PHX 10:52	15%	4%	1.3%	88%
WN 819 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:55	PHX 17:25	27%	9%	1.0%	79%
AA 4944 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 18:38	PHX 20:19	28%	10%	1.1%	79%
AA 6415 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 16:44	PHX 18:23	31%	11%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
WN 820 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:55	PHX 20:25	31%	10%	1.0%	79%
WN 839 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 20:30	PHX 22:00	33%	11%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON