Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3224 at 08:20, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3224 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 08:20	RDM 10:46	8%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	99%	92%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:45 → RDM 11:47AS 3073 · flown by SkyWest	4h 38m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 30m Portland	PDX 21:55 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon	4h 35m	91%	81%
Alaska Details →	BUR 14:09 → PDX 16:26AS 1383	1h 54m Portland	PDX 18:20 → RDM 19:09AS 2172 · flown by Horizon	5h 00m	97%	78%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	3h 13m Denver	DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05UA 1588	8h 17m	97%	74%
Alaska Details →	BUR 13:21 → SEA 16:03AS 580	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 19:50 → RDM 21:02AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest	7h 41m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 15:57 → RDM 17:09AS 3126 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	100%	72%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	1h 43m San Francisco	SFO 10:13 → RDM 11:57UA 2153	4h 55m	93%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 21:18 → RDM 22:59UA 1809	4h 17m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON